If Dan Maes' angry declarations that he will stay in the race, constant claims that his ethical problems are non-issues, and insistence that we all need to stop focusing on his past and instead on his future plans all seems oddly familiar; that's because we went through all of this very recently. Dan Maes has transformed into a mirror image of Scott McInnis as his campaign was unravelling.
It was exactly one month ago that Dan Maes savaged Scott McInnis in a debate: "You don't have positions. You don't stand for anything. You have no integrity. You have no character." (CBS 4)
Now, Dan Maes has revealed himself through his numerous lies and exaggerrations to be just as lacking in integrity and character as Scott McInnis. Maes' attempts to dismiss the fact that he apparently misrepresented his entire background echoes of McInnis' claims that his plagiarism scandal was a "non-issue."
Sadly, Maes will likely not step aside. He shows all the traits of running a self-centered, ego-driven campaign. Already, he is spinning the hemorrhaging of his support as an assault by insidious "power brokers" and casting himself as some sort of proletariat hero rising up against the oppressors. Make no mistake, Dan Maes has been abandoned by "party insiders" and grassroots alike. Tea Party group Hear Us Now has rescinded their endorsement of Maes. A group of 9.12 groups are set to meet with Maes this week over "concerns" about his campaign. This is the end of the line for Maes even if he refuses to accept it.
One of the largest question marks as we approach the August 10th primary in Colorado is just how many votes will be cast. We can get some idea of the scale of this election by examining the last major contested primary in the state as well as data from states that have previously instituted mail-in ballot elections.
The last major contested statewide primary on the Republican side was the Coors-Schaffer race in 2004. The turnout numbers for this race can be used as a baseline for turnout in a non-mail-in ballot election between well-matched Republican opponents.
333,701 votes were cast in the 2004 Republican Senate primary. In August of 2004, there were 1,074,366 total registered Republicans. Secretary of State records also indicate that in August of 2004, approximately 73% of all registered voters in the state were also active voters. This means that out of around 784,000 active Republican voters in 2004 - 42% cast their ballots.
The latest numbers from the Secretary of State office show that there are 855,667 active registered Republicans. If turnout were to match 2004, we can expect 359,000 votes to be cast. However, this is the first mail-in ballot primary in Colorado and this will impact turnout.
The impact of all mail-in ballots on turnout is disputed among academic sources and tends to vary widely. However, some recent research, as well as trends from states that have put mail-in elections in place, indicates that a jump in turnout for a primary election for the first mail-in ballot election will be approximately five percent over the previous comparable election.
Using this model, it is likely that approximately 377,000 Republican votes will be cast in the 2010 primary. If Democrats experience comparable turnout, which early returns indicate they will, there will be approximately 360,000 votes cast in the Democratic primary.
The mail-in ballot process in place this year should cause the primary turnout to rise above historical primary turnout. However, this will not be the massive increase in turnout that some campaigns are banking on. Instead, all things being equal, mail-in ballots seem to increase voter turnout incrementally each election cycle that they are used.
In 2006 - Bob Beauprez, arguably the worst candidate Colorado Republicans have ever fielded for any office until this point, was crushed by Bill Ritter in a 57-40 landslide. Having Bob Beauprez at the top of the ticket caused a drag effect on the rest of the ticket causing excellent candidates such as Mark Hillman to lose their races by narrow margins and extremely popular candidates such as Mike Coffman and John Suthers to end up in much closer races than they should have been in. Bob Beauprez's unpopularity surely contributed to handing his own 7th Congressional District to Rep. Ed Perlmutter (that district voted for both Ritter and Perlmutter by a wide margin). The carnage in 2006 in the state legislature can also be blamed on the disastrous top-of-the-ticket as local races are more insulated from the national mood.
As the last few years have shown , Bill Ritter is not exactly a skilled politician or a great campaigner. He won in a landslide because of Beauprez's implosion. In 2010, Colorado Republicans have even more damaged candidates than Bob Beauprez in the form of Scott McInnis and Dan Maes. On the other hand, Colorado Democrats are fronting a very skilled politician in the form of John Hickenlooper. In short, this is a recipe for an electoral blowout that will make it nearly impossible for Republicans to win back the Senate seat, the State Treasurer's office, the Secretary of State's office, CD-3, CD-4, CD-7, and countless local races that could be tanked by association.
There is no longer any doubt that Scott McInnis will not be on the ballot in November. McInnis may be able to scape by for the next few weeks and stand as a primary candidate. He might even be able to win the nomination against Dan Maes. However, McInnis does the party and the conservative movement a disservice the longer he remains in. This scandal has advanced to a point where it cannot be argued that it is "just politics" and every day that it rages on it tarnishes all Republicans.
On the other hand, a Maes victory in the primary would not be a legitimate victory. Maes would win not on his own merits but merely by the spectacular implosion of the McInnis campaign. Maes, who by all indications will still be unknown to the majority of the primary voters once ballots are dropped, could win by default. This scenario would leave Republicans with a candidate who has no resources to compete against John Hickenlooper, a tendancy to make 360-degree flips on issues when the situation suits him, and a questionable grasp of how the state operates. Maes is, simply put, woefully out of his depth.
Perhaps more damning to both candidates is the complete lack of confidence that is being shown towards both. Activists do not believe either can win (outside of small dedicated followings). Elected officials are running from them. Partisan organizations want no part of the Governor's race anymore. Colorado Republicans are about to be left with a gubernatorial candidate who has been disowned by their own party.
The only way out of this mess is for both candidates to step aside for the good of the party. Doing anything else will not only mean a certain victory for John Hickenlooper; but a probable victory for Betsy Markey, Ed Perlmutter, John Salazar, Bernie Buescher, Cary Kennedy, and Michael Bennet as well.
While many self-styled populists will rage against the idea of a party "establishment" vacancy committee selecting a nominee, the time to rage against them was when they were sweeping viable conservatives out of the way in favor of a race between Scott McInnis and whatever random people felt like slapping their name on the ballot. This is not an ideal situation by any means, but this is the only choice left.
( - promoted by Rocky Mountain Right - )
( - promoted by Rocky Mountain Right - )
The Cory Gardner for Congress campaign will be making a "major campaign announcement" today at 5 PM.
In light of last night's straw poll results in CD-4 which indicate that Gardner's closest competitor, Diggs Brown, will fall far short of obtaining ballot access via the assembly it is entirely possible that one of the candidates for CD-4 is dropping out to endorse Gardner.
If this is the case, it would also put pressure on minor congressional candidates in CD-7 and CD-3 to drop out.
UPDATE: Diggs Brown has announced his withdrawal from the CD-4 race and has endorsed Cory Gardner.
Amazon.com sent out the following notice to small businesspeople using their online-affilliate program last night:
Dear Colorado-based Amazon Associate:
We are writing from the Amazon Associates Program to inform you that the Colorado government recently enacted a law to impose sales tax regulations on online retailers. The regulations are burdensome and no other state has similar rules. The new regulations do not require online retailers to collect sales tax. Instead, they are clearly intended to increase the compliance burden to a point where online retailers will be induced to "voluntarily" collect Colorado sales tax -- a course we won't take.
We and many others strongly opposed this legislation, known as HB 10-1193, but it was enacted anyway. Regrettably, as a result of the new law, we have decided to stop advertising through Associates based in Colorado. We plan to continue to sell to Colorado residents, however, and will advertise through other channels, including through Associates based in other states.
There is a right way for Colorado to pursue its revenue goals, but this new law is a wrong way. As we repeatedly communicated to Colorado legislators, including those who sponsored and supported the new law, we are not opposed to collecting sales tax within a constitutionally-permissible system applied even-handedly. The US Supreme Court has defined what would be constitutional, and if Colorado would repeal the current law or follow the constitutional approach to collection, we would welcome the opportunity to reinstate Colorado-based Associates.
You may express your views of Colorado's new law to members of the General Assembly and to Governor Ritter, who signed the bill.
Your Associates account has been closed as of March 8, 2010, and we will no longer pay advertising fees for customers you refer to Amazon.com after that date. Please be assured that all qualifying advertising fees earned prior to March 8, 2010, will be processed and paid in accordance with our regular payment schedule. Based on your account closure date of March 8, any final payments will be paid by May 31, 2010.
We have enjoyed working with you and other Colorado-based participants in the Amazon Associates Program, and wish you all the best in your future.
Best Regards,
The Amazon Associates Team
As Ed Perlmutter suddenly finds himself at a cash disadvantage, he is turning to the time-honored tradition among endangered Congresscritters of franking. Nothing like gouging the taxpayer to push out some free mailings (complete with a union print shop bug) to the entire district.
(Click for larger versions)
The mailing itself appears to be preying on individuals who have had problems with excessive credit card debt and would logically be more amicable to Obama and Perlmutter's driving up of the national debt.
( - promoted by Rocky Mountain Right - )
Liberal State Rep. Jack Pommer (D), fresh on the heels of a meltdown last week in a house committee, has now gone "off message" once again. In a rare moment of honesty, Pommer says what he really thinks about businesses - they are all out to swindle hard-working Coloradans and flee the state.
When the proletariat rise up against the capitalist pigs you can bet that Jack Pommer will be right there, AK-47 and bowie knife in hand, leading the glorious charge.
Brief U.S. Senate candidate and libertarian-leaning Republican Luke Korkowski has announced he will be running for State House in the district currently held by Rep. Kathleen Curry (D/I/U/?):
Crested Butte, CO - Luke Korkowski seeks to return Colorado to a sound financial footing and to bring jobs back to our state.
“The economic downturn has hurt Colorado’s working families, and Governor Ritter’s tax hikes haven’t helped,” Korkowski said. He continued, “Though Colorado’s unique Constitution limits the General Assembly’s powers, I believe that, if we’re willing to restructure how we conduct business at the Capitol, we can return prosperity to our State.”
On Korkowski’s agenda are tax reform, facilitating the growth of small businesses, promoting responsible energy exploration, and education reform.
Korkowski previously ran a campaign for U.S. Senate. “I thought I was done with politics for a while,” Korkowski said, “but some persistent friends convinced me that we needed solid conservative leadership right here close to home.” Korkowski concluded, “I’m happy they were so tenacious, as I’ve come to believe they’re right. We’ve got to get our state back on the right track, and I look forward to serving at the State Capitol.”
Korkowski is a business consultant and transactional attorney in Crested Butte. He is married and has two young children.
More information will be available at Korkowski’s website, www.luke2010.com, which is set to launch within a week.
Luke would make an excellent Representative and will bring a unique perspective to the State House.
John Hickenlooper's view on a variety of major issues are suddenly shifting now that he's a declared candidate for Governor. While far-left 527s might want to make hay about Scott McInnis' "makeover" (AKA 'a shave'), they are simply attempting to distract from John Hickenlooper's makeover on the issues. Several days ago, "bi-partisan gubernatorial candidate" Hickenlooper declared to a crowd of oil and mining executives that he believes there is no consensus on global warming and that it might not be that severe (if it exists at all):
“I don’t think that the scientific community has decided with certainty that climate change is as catastrophic as so many people think,” said Hickenlooper, a former geologist in the energy industry.
He likened the discussion over climate change to when the scientific community as a whole turned on the issue of plate tectonics in the 1960s.
“Suddenly what was the standard accepted dogma of the field, was suddenly discredited,” he said. “So, my thinking with climate change is I can’t tell you, I don’t think anyone can tell you for sure if the climate is changing that fast, and certainly, in a snow storm like this, you have to look at it with a little bit of skepticism.” (Denver Daily News)
Contrast that statement with liberal Democrat Mayor Hickenlooper's statements only a few months ago while attending the Copenhagan conference on climate change:
Global warming skeptics out there, take note: Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper is looking to change your mind.
The city's chief executive is in Copenhagen, Denmark this week for the world's climate change conference and says the evidence he's seen from scientists across the world is "shocking."
"It's pretty compelling," the mayor said by phone on Tuesday morning. "It really does make you say, 'Gosh, I know it's going to be hard. It's going to be unpopular [to change].' My takeaway is I want to come back to Denver and sit down with every skeptic I can find and just walk them through all the evidence." (9 News)
You can't have it both ways, John.
As has now been reported by multiple sources, Gov. Bill Ritter is scrapping his campaign for reelection.
The sudden nature of this makes it clear that fundraising was not an issue. Political Wire reports that his campaign staff was sent home in the middle of the day. This should seem obvious, even if Ritter's fundraising had dropped substansially he still has a large warchest and would be calling the DGA begging for money instead of dropping out.
At this stage, there are really only two logical possibilites given the sudden nature of this. The first is that Ritter is involved in some sort of major political scandal that would make it impossible for him to win against a Republican. The second is that Ritter or an immediate family member is facing a life-threatening medical crisis. Ritter is slated for a press conference tomorrow at 11AM to announce he is dropping his campaign and this should give some hints, if not the reason itself, as to why Ritter is doing this.
Who Might Run?
As we reported in February of last year, Ken Salazar was rumored to be looking at running for Governor in 2014 even as he was beginning his tenure as Secretary of the Interior. This apparent ambition, along with his established fundraising base from his Senatorial campaigns and close proximity to Washington-based Democrats who will be searching for a candidate make Ken Salazar the most likely choice to replace Ritter.
Treasurer Cary Kennedy has faced her own problems in her race for reelection to that office, but still stands as the only Democrat in the state with a state committee with enough to act as seed money. While the amount that would transfer over from her current race would still be dwarfed by Scott McInnis' cash-on-hand, she at least wouldn't be starting from zero and she is on good terms with Democratic donors in the state.
Rep. Ed Perlmutter is being reported by some media outlets as a potential replacement and is a more remote possibility than Kennedy or Salazar. Perlmutter's main strength is that he is one of a handful of Democrats left who could potentially raise enough cash to challenge McInnis and is not involved in another race.
Who Won't Run?
Lt. Gov. Barbara O'Brien is unlikely to run for the office in 2010, though if Ritter resigns his office on the spot tomorrow she may serve out the remainder of his term as Governor. O'Brien was rumored to be looking to switch jobs earlier in the year so running for Governor may not be part of her plans.
Who Might Be In Trouble?
Bill Ritter's departure could also cause problems for Sen. Michael Bennet as he loses his main Democratic ally and advocate. Expect Andrew Romanoff's insurgent primary challenge to gain some new life amid Ritter's chaotic departure and his subsequent absense.
National liberal blog Daily Kos occasionally commissions polls on various races. Their most recent was a national poll on voter enthusiasm. To put it mildly, they found a bit of a gap between Republicans and Democrats:
Voter Intensity: Definitely + Probably Voting/Not Likely + Not Voting
Republican Voters: 81/14
Independent Voters: 65/23
DEMOCRATIC VOTERS: 56/40
In other words, 81% of Republicans polled say they plan to vote in 2010 compared to only 56% of Democrats. This is a bleak result for Democrats who finally seem to be realizing that without Barack Obama on the ballot next year, not only will turnout be depreciated from lack of excitement but many demographics might not come to the polls altogether. Couple that with growing discontent among independent voters, and the worst-case scenario for Democratic incumbents could be emerging.
Just for fun let's take a look at the voter registration breakdown in CD-3, CD-4, CD-7, and statewide. Then let's take a look at the makeup of the electorate if we adjust to assume that 81% of Republicans turn out, 65% of unaffiliateds turn out, and 56% of Democrats turn out as the Daily Kos poll showed. (Raw voter registration percentages are provided along with the altered values in parenthesis.)
CD-3 (Adjusted)
Republican 34.7% (41.8%)
Unaffiliated 32.1% (31.0%)
Democratic 32.7% (27.2%)CD-4 (Adjusted)
Republican 37.2% (44.2%)
Unaffiliated 34.6% (33.0%)
Democratic 27.6% (22.7%)CD-7 (Adjusted)
Republican 28% (34.4%)
Unaffiliated 33.7% (33.5%)
Democratic 37.7% (32.1%)Statewide (Adjusted)
Republican 34.8% (41.8%)
Unaffiliated 30.8% (29.6%)
Democratic 34.4% (28.6%)
Democrats will probably rally to put on a bit better showing than the Daily Kos poll is predicting now, but in any case it is looking like there will be a distinct advantage for Republicans in turnout. This is basically a flip from the 2008 elections which saw a highly motivated Democratic electorate turn out for Barack Obama. John Salazar, Betsy Markey, and Ed Perlmutter are in for the rudest awakenings as a result: any Democratic candidate elected in 2008 will have their base suddenly M.I.A..
Both of Perlmutter's elections have been in years with highly motivated Democratic bases and these numbers show that CD-7 could transform into an effective Republican-plurality district when adjusted for turnout. Betsy Markey was an aberration, the floor will fall out from underneath her now that she lacks both an unpopular Republican opponent and sharing the ballot with Obama. John Salazar has had a decent amount of Republican crossover votes, but Republicans making up that large a portion of the electorate when adjusted and combined with anti-incumbent sentiments among independents could doom him.
* Voter registration numbers were taken from COMaps.org for CD-3, CD-4, and CD-7 and are dated August 2009. Statewide numbers were taken from the Secretary of State's statistics for active voter registrations as of October 2009.
As Josh Penry prepares to suspend his campaign for Governor, former Congressman Tom Tancredo may be preparing to deny Scott McInnis a clear path to the nomination.
This would not be a move without precedent. Tom Tancredo's gubernatorial intentions were made clear in the months following the 2008 elections when he told Republican insiders and organizations that he was planning to run for Governor. Those plans fell by the wayside in 2009 when Josh Penry began to consolidate support from conservative activists.
More recently, Tom Tancredo was reported to be on the verge of challenging Jane Norton for the Republican Senate nomination had Norton found herself the lone contender in that race.
Sen. Dave Schultheis recently announced that he would not be seeking re-election to SD-9 in 2010. As Ben DeGrow reports, conservative Rep. Kent Lambert may be announcing his candidacy for the seat later today.
Lambert will be the de facto nominee if he declares his candidacy. While Schultheis was facing a primary opponent in Tom McDowell who will likely continue to run, McDowell has proven time and time again that he does not have the temperament for public office and has demonstrated a propensity for making ludicrous statements that is at least as strong as the outgoing Schultheis.
McDowell has predicated his candidacy on expanding the big tent of the Republican party and has put that goal into practice by:
The Republican Party backed slate of candidates for the Douglas County School Board have taken an early lead and will likely win barring a massive turnaround for their opponents.
John Carson, Dan Gerken, Doug Benevento, and Meghann Silverthorn are all leading in their respective races.
Initial returns from Denver indicate that charter school proponent Mary Seawall is on track to crush union-backed candidate Christopher Scott by at least a 2-1 margin in the Denver Public Schools board at-large race.
Initiative 300, a proposal to increase penalties for driving without a license, appears to be headed for defeat by a similar margin.
Barack Obama made a number of trips to Virginia and New Jersey to help out Democratic gov. candidates Creigh Deeds and Jon Corzine, but exit polling of the races out tonight shows that Obama's trips were a wash with voters in deep-blue New Jersey and may have actually motivated the opposition more in Virginia. The National Journal reports:
A majority of voters in both states said, for the most part, that Pres. Obama wasn't a factor in their vote. In NJ, 60% said Obama's support of Corzine didn't play a role either way, which 55% of VA voters said they didn't consider Obama's embrace of state Sen. Creigh Deeds (D) when deciding how to vote.
Of voters who said Obama's support did play a role, 19% of NJ voters said they were voting to support Obama, while 20% said they were voting to oppose him. In VA, 18% were seeking to support Obama while 24% voted as an expression of opposition to Obama.
For general inquiries, tips, and blogroll requests; please email: info@rockymountainright.com
