The Cory Gardner for Congress campaign will be making a "major campaign announcement" today at 5 PM.

In light of last night's straw poll results in CD-4 which indicate that Gardner's closest competitor, Diggs Brown, will fall far short of obtaining ballot access via the assembly it is entirely possible that one of the candidates for CD-4 is dropping out to endorse Gardner.

If this is the case, it would also put pressure on minor congressional candidates in CD-7 and CD-3 to drop out.

UPDATE: Diggs Brown has announced his withdrawal from the CD-4 race and has endorsed Cory Gardner.

Q4 2009 Fundraising Totals (Incumbent in Bold)

Michael Bennet - 1,149,091
Tom Wiens - 725,000
Jane Norton - 550,605
Ken Buck - 39,850

John Salazar - 187,160
Scott Tipton - 109,981
Bob McConnell - 12,471

Betsy Markey - 227,442
Cory Gardner - 197,553
Diggs Brown - 61,174
Tom Lucero - 25,824

Ryan Frazier - 218,824
Ed Perlmutter - 215,201
Lang Sias - 30,931

U.S. Senate

Michael Bennet's fundraising continues at a monumental pace and it is starting to look as if he will have a massive advantage no matter who the Republican nominee may be. Jane Norton once again posted strong numbers, though many observers found it troublesome she did not improve much over the last quarter's take.

Though the Wiens campaign is declining to say how much of the $725,000 they are claiming to have brought in came from the candidate himself, it appears safe to assume that Wiens followed through on his previous statement that he would be investing $500,000 of his money into his campaign. Regardless of where the money came from, this means Wiens now has a very well-financed primary campaign.

Ken Buck had an extremely disappointing quarter. The sole consolation here is the massive ad buy by the Campaign for Liberty that can free up some money that may have been allocated by the Buck campaign for media and divert it into organizational costs.

CD-3

Scott Tipton had a strong showing for his first month in the race. If he is able to keep up the pace he should be able to place the seat into play.

CD-4

Cory Gardner had another strong fundraising quarter. Despite being outraised by Makey, CD-4's Republican voter registration advantage means that Makey would have to be raising even more than she is to make it up. Gardner is strongly positioning himself as the leading candidate in both the primary and general elections.

At $61,174, Diggs Brown has enough money to mount a primary challenge, even if it is a long-shot. He will at least be able to afford a working campaign organization, which is more than what most other underdog candidates in these Republican primaries can say.

Tom Lucero again had a lackluster quarter, but even more damaging to his prospects than his low fundraising haul is his astounding 200% burn rate. When a campaign spends twice what they raised in a given quarter, it is a sure sign it is on it's last legs.

CD-7

Ryan Frazier had a strong fundraising quarter and stands as the only Colorado Republican challenger for federal office to outraise the Democratic incumbent. While a narrow victory, Frazier's take places what was expected to be a safe Democratic seat into play.

Ex-Democrat and Mark Udall supporter Lang Sias, despite starting fundraising at the beginning of November and having most of the quarter to fundraise, came in with a dismal $30,931. Nearly half of his money came from Washington DC, as opposed to Frazier who blew him out of the water and raised funds mostly from in-state, and $5,000 of that came from John McCain's PAC. While Sias gave the illusion of being a strong candidate with his McCain backing and much-touted Washington connections, after raising only $30,391 it is hard to see how he is even remotely serious. Sias' funding problems will become even more severe as he is rumored to be planning to bypass the grassroots by running a costly petition campaign in the coming months.

National liberal blog Daily Kos occasionally commissions polls on various races. Their most recent was a national poll on voter enthusiasm. To put it mildly, they found a bit of a gap between Republicans and Democrats:

Voter Intensity: Definitely + Probably Voting/Not Likely + Not Voting

Republican Voters: 81/14
Independent Voters: 65/23
DEMOCRATIC VOTERS: 56/40

In other words, 81% of Republicans polled say they plan to vote in 2010 compared to only 56% of Democrats. This is a bleak result for Democrats who finally seem to be realizing that without Barack Obama on the ballot next year, not only will turnout be depreciated from lack of excitement but many demographics might not come to the polls altogether. Couple that with growing discontent among independent voters, and the worst-case scenario for Democratic incumbents could be emerging.

Just for fun let's take a look at the voter registration breakdown in CD-3, CD-4, CD-7, and statewide. Then let's take a look at the makeup of the electorate if we adjust to assume that 81% of Republicans turn out, 65% of unaffiliateds turn out, and 56% of Democrats turn out as the Daily Kos poll showed. (Raw voter registration percentages are provided along with the altered values in parenthesis.)

CD-3 (Adjusted)

Republican 34.7%  (41.8%)
Unaffiliated 32.1%  (31.0%)
Democratic 32.7%  (27.2%)

CD-4 (Adjusted)

Republican 37.2%  (44.2%)
Unaffiliated 34.6%  (33.0%)
Democratic 27.6%  (22.7%)

CD-7 (Adjusted)

Republican 28%  (34.4%)
Unaffiliated 33.7%  (33.5%)
Democratic 37.7%  (32.1%)

Statewide (Adjusted)

Republican 34.8%  (41.8%)
Unaffiliated 30.8%  (29.6%)
Democratic 34.4%  (28.6%)

Democrats will probably rally to put on a bit better showing than the Daily Kos poll is predicting now, but in any case it is looking like there will be a distinct advantage for Republicans in turnout. This is basically a flip from the 2008 elections which saw a highly motivated Democratic electorate turn out for Barack Obama. John Salazar, Betsy Markey, and Ed Perlmutter are in for the rudest awakenings as a result: any Democratic candidate elected in 2008 will have their base suddenly M.I.A..

Both of Perlmutter's elections have been in years with highly motivated Democratic bases and these numbers show that CD-7 could transform into an effective Republican-plurality district when adjusted for turnout. Betsy Markey was an aberration, the floor will fall out from underneath her now that she lacks both an unpopular Republican opponent and sharing the ballot with Obama. John Salazar has had a decent amount of Republican crossover votes, but Republicans making up that large a portion of the electorate when adjusted and combined with anti-incumbent sentiments among independents could doom him.

* Voter registration numbers were taken from COMaps.org for CD-3, CD-4, and CD-7 and are dated August 2009. Statewide numbers were taken from the Secretary of State's statistics for active voter registrations as of October 2009.

( - promoted by Rocky Mountain Right - )

Renowned reporter/blogger Chris Cillizza spends time this morning writing about Senator Josh Penry and his campaign to be the next Governor of Colorado.  In his "The Rising" series, Cillizza has spent time exploring the new faces of the GOP and what the party is doing to put forward candidates that don't fall in to the "same old same old" category.  It's a great piece that's worth reading:

http://voices.washingtonpost.com/thefix/

This is just further evidence that Penry's campaign and his message of making a clean break from the GOP jokers that got our party in a ditch is gaining serious traction. 

Whie Rep. Betsy Markey has been doing her best to duck her constituents, Rep. Mike Coffman from neighboring CD-6 introduces a novel concept: a Congressman who isn't afraid to face the people he represents.

         Who:       Rep. Mike Coffman (R-Aurora)

·         What:     Elbert County town hall meeting

·         When:   Thursday, September 3, 6:30 p.m. – 7:30 p.m.  MT

·         Where:  Elbert County Public Health Building, 75 Ute Ave., Kiowa, CO
                  *The building is located at the North end of the fairgrounds.

The Journal Advocate reports:

The Republicans have to be the party of ideas and the party of knowledge in order to regain the trust in Congress, Gardner said. He pointed out several components of the change he feels they need to exemplify in their approach to the campaign such as individual rights and freedoms; to be responsible stewards of resources;  to have a strong sense of public virtue; lower corporate taxes to keep businesses in our country; improve transportation with increasing taxes or fees.
“To take this country back, we are going to have to be more than the party of nos; but the party of k-n-o-w, the party that knows; we have to lead with ideas,” he said. “With a platform of solutions instead of opposition.”
Gardner urged those gathered to share with others that, “This election really is the most important election of our lifetime.”
Gardner was named on Wednesday as one of 13 candidates in the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) new Young Guns program, which aims to help non-incumbents win in top races around the country.
The Republican Breakfast is held at 7 a.m., the last Thursday of every month at the Ramada Inn. The Aug. 27 speaker will be Sen. Greg Brophy.

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Today's Politico:  www.politico.com

Campaign finance announcements are starting to trickle out. Cory Gardner's campaign has announced it has raised over $200,000 in the first seven weeks he has been in the race. This is a strong showing that will surely outstrip his primary opponents. Betsy Markey raised $342,000 in the first quarter of 2009, so Gardner is raising money at a similar pace.

The campaign's release follows:

In the race for Colorado's 4th Congressional District, Cory Gardner has taken a commanding fundraising lead over his primary opponents by raising over $200,000 during his first seven weeks in the race.

"I am humbled by the outpouring of support that I have received thus far," Gardner said. He added, "In a targeted race that is going to require a strong campaign, this is a good start for us."

Gardner will file his first report with the Federal Election Commission on July 15th. The report will show a broad base of support with donors from each of the 4th Congressional District's eighteen counties. Gardner has also received donations from Democrats, Unaffiliated and Republican voters who have responded to his vision for a better Colorado.

Gardner is a fifth generation Coloradan from Yuma, Colorado. He graduated summa cum laude from Colorado State University and holds a law degree from the University of Colorado. When not at the state legislature, he works at the family farm implement dealership and maintains a small private law practice.

Cory is committed to representing rural Colorado, small businesses and agriculture.  Representative Gardner is recognized as a leading fiscal conservative in the state and a strong voice for renewable energy and natural resources. He is a constant advocate for limited government and common sense principles.

BETSY MARKEY "OPEN TO" SOCIALIZED MEDICINE: Markey's carefully cultivated centrist image in CD-4 could fly out the window if she backs Obama's healthcare plan.

GARDNER EDGES OUT BROWN IN LARIMER STRAW POLL: Rep. Cory Gardner took a ten-point victory over Diggs Brown (44-34) in the Larimer County Shrimp Boil poll on Friday. Brown would have been expected to have the home field advantage among activists in the Larimer County Republican Party.

The Cory Gardner for Congress campaign sent out this statement on the formation of their committee:

What has been rumored for weeks is no longer a rumor. State Representative Cory Gardner announced today that he is filing the necessary paperwork to run for Congress in Colorado’s 4th Congressional District.

“My family has called Yuma home for almost 100 years; a lot has changed in that time but the common sense lessons of fiscal responsibility and honest pay for honest work that I grew up with remain the same.” Gardner’s great grandparents settled in Yuma in 1886 and started the family business in 1915. The business is still family owned and operated.

“After discussions with my wife Jaime, our five year old daughter Alyson as well as family and friends, I have decided that the time is right to run for Congress.”

In making his announcement Gardner cited the current state of politics in Washington as one of the reasons he is choosing to run. “Republicans and Democrats alike have ignored their duty to the American people. Our Government is not the root of America’s goodness. It is the American people, with our drive to prosper, our willingness to take risks and start businesses combined with our freedom that makes America great. When Government attempts to spend its way out of economic trouble by mortgaging future generations – our great country is at risk.”

As a champion for small business and agriculture, Gardner plans to bring a new vision to Washington DC with bold ideas to tackle the problems facing America. The Denver Post identified Gardner as the “GOP Idea Man” at the Colorado Legislature.

“My decision to run is based upon my love for this country and wanting to hold the line on the reckless spending in Washington. I am running to fight for rural Colorado and small businesses; to stand with farmers and ranchers, working for water solutions and to protect our faith and families,” said Gardner. “To lower taxes and take government away from the bureaucrats and fat cats whose iron grip on Washington is bringing our state and nation down.”

“Our campaign will focus on bold ideas and real solutions in a spirited debate about the direction of our country as we address challenges at home and abroad. My five year old daughter’s future has been mortgaged, along with that of every child in America.  Our campaign is ready to take our country’s future back, and we will start by reminding people about how great America is and that together, we will make it even greater.”
 
In 1997 Cory graduated summa cum laude from Colorado State University with a Bachelor’s Degree in Political Science.  After graduation he attended law school at the University of Colorado, School of Law, where he earned his juris doctorate. Cory is licensed to practice law in Colorado and maintains a private law practice.”

CORY GARDNER'S CAMPAIGN SITE LIVE: The Gardner for Congress site is up and running for anyone interested. The RMR candidate directory has been updated to reflect Gardner's entry into the race.

BUCK RESPONDS TO CAMPAIGN ISSUES: Ben DeGrow got Ken Buck on the phone to get reponses about some ongoing issues with his campaign, including a story broke earlier today on this site by RMR contributor Senate Watch.

( - promoted by Rocky Mountain Right -)

From the Fort Collins Coloradoan.

http://www.coloradoan.com/article/20090507/UPDATES01/90507006

Cory Gardner announces GOP challenge to Markey

Colorado staff

State Rep. Cory Gardner, R-Yuma, will announce today that he'll run for Betsy Markey's 4th Congressional District seat in 2010.

Gardner is the second announced Republican candidate, joining University of Colorado Regent Tom Lucero in what is likely to be a crowded GOP field.

“I have always been a champion for rural Colorado, small business issues and been a constant warrior for fiscal responsibility,” Gardner told the online political publication Politico in an e-mail. “One thing’s for sure – the people of the 4th Congressional District will know where I stand and who I am fighting for.”

Other possible Republican candidates include former Fort Collins City Council member Diggs Brown, Larimer County Commissioner Steve Johnson and former Weld County Commissioner Bill Jerke.

Markey defeated three-term incumbent Marilyn Musgrave by 12 percentage points in 2008, becoming the first Democrat since 1972 to win a 4th Congressional District race.

More details in Friday's Coloradoan.

Winners

1. House and Senate Republicans- The House and Senate GOP caucuses overwhelmingly influenced this year’s legislative session. Even with massive majorities in both chambers, Legislative Democrats just could not seem to move the ball on their agenda without it completely blowing up in their faces. Why? Because the minority party had them scared shitless. The Dems capitulated on so many of their key issues and so timidly wielded their majority status that it is hard to see how Liberal activists could be excited about reelecting them.

2. Josh Penry- Penry led the fight on the Senate Floor against so many bad proposals that it is difficult to know where to begin. The Liberal blogosphere continually attacked him with everything they had and it just never stuck. Clearly Penry emerges out of this session as a winner and someone who is uniquely positioned as a leader in the Republican Party.

3. Cory Gardner-No one works harder than Gardner does. The guy is everywhere and always has a smile on his face and a positive demeanor. Gardner will be unstoppable in his run for the 4^th CD and his performance this session proves it.

4. Free Market Activists- Just about no one can remember a larger crowd amassing at the capitol that this year’s tea party protest. Estimated at over 5000 people large the crowd was so large that capitol insiders say the tax and spending House Democrats literally had to shut down debate in the House at times because of the crowd noise.

5. Scott Tipton-Tipton has emerged as a stellar freshman legislator. In his first year he is already taking leadership on tough issues such as Katie’s Law. Tipton is one to keep an eye on for the future.

Losers

1. Colorado Taxpayers- Colorado Democrats went on a tax and fee raising bender that would make Pelosi’s Washington crew proud. From higher car taxes to cigarette taxes Colorado taxpayers are going to be seeing major increases to their cost of living all across the board. Way to go Democrats.

2. Bill Ritter-There really is not too much left to say about this bozo. $80,000 sightseeing trips to China, Check, zero leadership on the economy, Check, pissing off one of the most important industries in the state, Check. Nothing spells L-O-S-E-R like R-I-T-T-E-R right now and EVERYONE knows it.

3. Gail (Failed) Swartz- She is nearing the end of her first Senate term and she still can’t even explain her own bills. This Aspen Democrat just doesn’t have the chops to represent her largely rural Senate District and this year proved it. She is just one of many House and Senate Dems who are going to be looking for new jobs in 2010. Swartz loses big-time next November.

4. Fake Liberal Progressive Moveon type groups- These jokers have seen their worst year yet. Colorado Media Matters shut down, the Colorado Independent laid off nearly all of their staff and Michael Sluttner of ProgressNowColorado can no longer get quoted to save his life. Yup, everyone is sick and tired of these fake activist groups and their incessant bullshit. These guys had some clever moments in the past but their day is done.

5. Democrat Rhetoric- Hope, Change, how about the most partisan year in the legislature that anyone can remember. Democrats empty and vapid promises of hope and change have been a major letdown.

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Magellan Strategies has conducted the first poll on the Republican primary in CD-4. The results are as follows:

The ballot test of potential candidates revealed State Rep. Cory Gardner (18%) with a 6 point lead over former 
Weld County Commissioner Bill Jerke (12%), UC Regent Tom Lucero (11%), and Fort Collins Councilmember Diggs 
Brown (11%).  Forty eight percent of respondents were undecided. 
 
The ballot test by region shows significant differences that reflect the local support of each candidate.  
Among Larimer County Republican primary voters, Diggs Brown leads with 19%, followed by Tom 
Lucero with 15%, Bill Jerke with 6% and Cory Gardner with 4%.  Among Weld County Republican primary 
voters, Bill Jerke leads with 34%, followed by Cory Gardner with 9%, Tom Lucero with 8% and Diggs Brown 
with 6%.  Among the 15 counties within the district that do not include Larimer, Weld and Boulder 
counties, Cory Gardner has a significant lead with 58% of the vote, followed by Tom Lucero with 7%, 
Bill Jerke with 4% and Diggs Brown with 3%. 

Favorability ratings were also polled for each candidate:

The image ratings of the potential candidates are as expected considering the early nature of the race.  
Tom Lucero’s image rating is 10 FAV/18 UNFAV, Cory Gardner’s image rating is 20 FAV/9 UNFAV, Bill Jerke’s rating is 13 FAV/11 UNFAV, and Diggs Brown image rating is 14 FAV/9 UNFAV.

Betsy Markey looks like she will be at the top of the list for potential Republican pick-ups in the 2010 elections. This means that the largely rural district will be getting an abnormal amound of attention from the national press and Washington D.C.-based Roll Call is already covering the Republican primary. A recent article reports that Rep. Cory Gardner is already consolidating support at the national level, a move that could potentially give him an insurmountable fundraising advantage:

Among the politicians that have been mentioned by party strategists in Colorado and Washington, D.C., the man who seems to be generating the most talk is state Rep. Cory Gardner (R).

Gardner has served in the GOP leadership in Colorado’s General Assembly and his state legislative district includes a large number of the 4th Congressional district’s eastern counties. In an interview, he was quick to bring up his rural roots while insinuating that Markey’s support stems mostly from Fort Collins and Larimer County, which was the only county in the district that Obama won last year.

Gardner said Monday that his candidacy, should he decide to run, would have “a district-wide appeal.”

“He’s not only a credible legislator but has been a model for Republicans,” Floyd Ciruli, an independent pollster based in Denver, said of Gardner. The state legislator is “someone from the Eastern part of the district but yet able to do well and not completely die in Larimer, which is what happened to [Musgrave]. ... I don’t think he has much of an identity [in Fort Collins], on the other hand I don’t think he necessarily is going to raise the hackles that” Musgrave did in that part of the district.

A National Republican Congressional Committee spokeswoman called Gardner “a rising star among a deep bench of strong Republican talent in Colorado.”

Perhaps the most perplexing report to emerge from this article is the fact that the only announced candidate for CD-4, Tom Lucero, has not met with the NRCC while the two unannounced candidates, Cory Gardner and Diggs Brown, have met with the national organization:

There’s been some talk among Republicans about drafting Fort Collins City Council member Diggs Brown into the race. Brown, a major in the National Guard, is currently serving overseas in Africa but at this point in the cycle he’s the only other potential candidate besides Gardner to have met with the NRCC.

GREG BROPHY GETS BEHIND CORY GARDNER IN CD-4: The Rocky Mountain News is reporting that not only has Sen. Greg Brophy opted against a run for Congress, but that he has indicated he will support Rep. Cory Gardner for the seat. Cory Gardner was already a favorite going into the primary, Brophy's support cements his frontrunner status.

RMA BLOGTALKRADIO: Tonight at 8:30 PM with Evan Maloney of Indoctrinate U.

REP. CORY GARDNER WHACKS RITTER OVER CAR TAX: The proposed "fees" would inordinately impact rural residents.

BOB BEAUPREZ CONSIDERING RUN FOR GOVERNOR OR SENATE?: Let's do the time warp again.

IMPRESSIVE, BUT WHERE'S MY HOLODECK?: CNN has been using some Microsoft technology to stich user-submitted photos into a sort of 3D panorama of the inauguration. One wonders what future generations might be able to do with archived photos of events like this.

A SIGN OF THE TIMES: Whitehouse.gov was scrubbed of all traces of George W. Bush and replaced with the Obama site before the boxes were even off the truck at the White House.

The GJ Sentinel reports that Rep. Cory Gardner will soon start a push for expanded nuclear power in the state:

In an effort to foster the nuclear debate, Rep. Cory Gardner, R-Yuma, said he plans to run legislation later this year to create a nuclear energy commission to explore how feasible it would be to jump-start nuclear development.

“I think it’s time, with all the talk of energy independence and high energy prices, that we have a conversation about nuclear power,” Gardner said.

He said the commission would examine state and federal regulations and explore what reform would be necessary to start nuclear development.

Environmentalists are offering their usual knee-jerk responses in opposition. The fact of the matter is that solar power is a long way from becoming cost-efficient and even further from putting out enough power to be viable on a large scale. Even one of the co-founders of Greenpeace is now pro-nuclear. The real "New Energy Economy," to quote Gov. Bill Ritter's favorite buzzphrase, will be based around things like Toshiba's Micro Nuclear Reactor and similar emerging technologies.

Congratulations to Sen. Josh Penry who has been named as the new Senate Minority Leader. Sen. Mike Kopp will again serve as the chair of the Senate Republican Caucus.

Cory Gardner successfully fought off a challenge for the title of Minority Whip in the State House. Penry, Gardner, and Kopp will serve as an excellent face the GOP at the capitol and are the right leadership to turn the tide back against the Democrats in 2010.