As Ed Perlmutter suddenly finds himself at a cash disadvantage, he is turning to the time-honored tradition among endangered Congresscritters of franking. Nothing like gouging the taxpayer to push out some free mailings (complete with a union print shop bug) to the entire district.

(Click for larger versions)

The mailing itself appears to be preying on individuals who have had problems with excessive credit card debt and would logically be more amicable to Obama and Perlmutter's driving up of the national debt.

National liberal blog Daily Kos occasionally commissions polls on various races. Their most recent was a national poll on voter enthusiasm. To put it mildly, they found a bit of a gap between Republicans and Democrats:

Voter Intensity: Definitely + Probably Voting/Not Likely + Not Voting

Republican Voters: 81/14
Independent Voters: 65/23
DEMOCRATIC VOTERS: 56/40

In other words, 81% of Republicans polled say they plan to vote in 2010 compared to only 56% of Democrats. This is a bleak result for Democrats who finally seem to be realizing that without Barack Obama on the ballot next year, not only will turnout be depreciated from lack of excitement but many demographics might not come to the polls altogether. Couple that with growing discontent among independent voters, and the worst-case scenario for Democratic incumbents could be emerging.

Just for fun let's take a look at the voter registration breakdown in CD-3, CD-4, CD-7, and statewide. Then let's take a look at the makeup of the electorate if we adjust to assume that 81% of Republicans turn out, 65% of unaffiliateds turn out, and 56% of Democrats turn out as the Daily Kos poll showed. (Raw voter registration percentages are provided along with the altered values in parenthesis.)

CD-3 (Adjusted)

Republican 34.7%  (41.8%)
Unaffiliated 32.1%  (31.0%)
Democratic 32.7%  (27.2%)

CD-4 (Adjusted)

Republican 37.2%  (44.2%)
Unaffiliated 34.6%  (33.0%)
Democratic 27.6%  (22.7%)

CD-7 (Adjusted)

Republican 28%  (34.4%)
Unaffiliated 33.7%  (33.5%)
Democratic 37.7%  (32.1%)

Statewide (Adjusted)

Republican 34.8%  (41.8%)
Unaffiliated 30.8%  (29.6%)
Democratic 34.4%  (28.6%)

Democrats will probably rally to put on a bit better showing than the Daily Kos poll is predicting now, but in any case it is looking like there will be a distinct advantage for Republicans in turnout. This is basically a flip from the 2008 elections which saw a highly motivated Democratic electorate turn out for Barack Obama. John Salazar, Betsy Markey, and Ed Perlmutter are in for the rudest awakenings as a result: any Democratic candidate elected in 2008 will have their base suddenly M.I.A..

Both of Perlmutter's elections have been in years with highly motivated Democratic bases and these numbers show that CD-7 could transform into an effective Republican-plurality district when adjusted for turnout. Betsy Markey was an aberration, the floor will fall out from underneath her now that she lacks both an unpopular Republican opponent and sharing the ballot with Obama. John Salazar has had a decent amount of Republican crossover votes, but Republicans making up that large a portion of the electorate when adjusted and combined with anti-incumbent sentiments among independents could doom him.

* Voter registration numbers were taken from COMaps.org for CD-3, CD-4, and CD-7 and are dated August 2009. Statewide numbers were taken from the Secretary of State's statistics for active voter registrations as of October 2009.

It's official:

Aurora, CO - October 15, 2009 - In an address to his supporters today at a family-owned business in Adams County, Aurora City Councilman Ryan Frazier officially announced his candidacy for the Unites States House of Representatives in Colorado’s 7th Congressional District. 
 
Frazier’s message is one of a new way forward with solutions grounded in the principles of fiscal responsibility and limited federal government.  Frazier cites his desire to build a better, more prosperous future for the people of Colorado as his motivation for running for Congress.  He sees the struggling economy, the need for a comprehensive policy that will lead to energy independence, and the fiscally irresponsible policies of the current Congress as the problems most affecting the people of Colorado. 

"I stepped forward in this election because I feel so strongly about the opportunity we have as a country to be better, safer, and economically stronger. We owe our children that much. The dangerous course that the Democrat-controlled Congress has forced us to tread, greatly concerns me. There is too much at stake: people's livelihoods and our children's future. It’s time to re-energize the people's House with new leadership and better solutions. The 7th Congressional District represents the right path, right now to do my part in helping make America better. The people here deserve a better choice,” Frazier stated.

The clearest loser in this move is Ed Perlmutter. Perlmutter has had an easy time in both of his campaign thus far; winning in 2006 in one of the worst years for Republicans while Beauprez was busy tanking at the top of the ticket, and in 2008 against a Republican so low-profile that his campaign was using "John Who? Joh LeRew!" as a campaign slogan. Perlmutter hasn't had a difficult fight yet and Frazier can provide that.

The Senate primary now becomes a two-way race and Frazier's departure will benefit Ken Buck in one key area. Part of the problem that Buck and Frazier had raising money against Norton was that national conservative groups were not sure who to support between the two of them. Now that Buck is the clear alternative to Norton, organizations such as the Club for Growth are now much more likely to intervene and breathe life into Buck's campaign.

( - promoted by Rocky Mountain Right - )

Today's Politico:  www.politico.com

The Washington Post is reporting that Colorado's own Rep. Ed Perlmutter has blundered into an ethical quandry:

Rep. Ed Perlmutter of Colorado inserted a provision into the recently passed House climate change bill that would drum up business for "green" banks, such as the one he has invested in and his family and a political donor helped found in San Francisco.

The bill calls on bank regulators to promote green banking and says federal dollars should be used to support energy-efficient home improvements at government-funded housing projects.

Mr. Perlmutter, a two-term Democrat, has two investments in the 3-year-old New Resource Bank, which calls itself the nation's first green bank. Among other environmentally conscious banking products, the bank offers home equity loans for consumers to make their homes more energy efficient, in addition to construction loans for green builders.

This is likely a harbinger of the political environment of the coming decade. The sheer scope of the stimulus package and the bailouts guarantees that we'll be seeing members of congress caught up in conflicts of interest and corruption problems almost constantly. Ed Perlmutter and other representatives such as Chris Dodd are only the tip of the iceberg when it comes to congressmen personally benefitting from the stimulus package, the bailouts, and the government-created "green" cottage industry.

Incidentally, the last representative from CD-7 had his political ambitions derailed in no small part due to a very similar story.

The more things change, the more they stay the same. The Denver Post reports:

As the Associated Press Reports: Federal prosecutors are investigating PMA Group’s founder and president, Paul Magliochetti, who is a former top aide to Rep. John Murtha, D-Pa., chairman of the House Appropriations subcommittee that funds defense programs.

Magliochetti is being investigated amid allegations that he funneled money through donors who are listed in campaign documents as PMA Group employees but are not tied to the company. His lobbying firm is in the process of disbanding and plans to close its doors at the end of next month.

Congressional Quarterly includes former-Rep. Mark Udall, D-Eldorado Springs (and elected to the Senate last fall), and Reps. Ed Perlmutter, D-Golden, and Doug Lamborn, R-Colorado Springs, on the list of those who secured earmarks -- either individually or with others --and also received campaign contributions from the PMA group's political action committee or its employees.

After being snubbed by Bill Ritter for the Secretary of State appointment, Ken Gordon disrupted the governor's announcement by sending out a pre-emptive "congratulatory" email several hours before Bernie Buescher was named for the spot. Rep. Ed Perlmutter, having been passed over for the senate appointment, is engaging in a bit of Gordon-esque behavior of his own.

Ed Perlmutter and his staff started to leak news to the liberal blogosphere that he had been passed over for the appointment. In light of this, it would hardly be surprising if the anonymous sources for the Rocky Mountain News were Perlmutter loyalists.

9News.com now brings us a round-up of reactions to the Michael Bennet appointment and publishes a statement from Perlmutter that doesn't even mention Bennet:

"It's an honor and privilege serving the people of the 7th CD and I look forward to continuing to do so. I'm very grateful for the outpouring of support I received from people across the state as I was being considered to fill Sen. Salazar's seat, to those I owe a great debt of gratitude. Our country is facing very tough times, and I'm ready to head back to Washington to work on these issues on behalf of the hard working people of the 7th."

Hopefully there's more to that statement somewhere and Ed Perlmutter isn't just patting himself on the back.

It looks like Caroline Kennedy isn't the only would-be Senator out there who has a problem with letting the public knowing their positions on the issues. Colorado actually has seven potential senators who don't feel like talking to the public about their positions.

The Denver Post emailed out brief questionnaires to eight politicians rumored to be on Bill Ritter's list to fill Ken Salazar's senate seat. Only one, Rep. Diana DeGette, bothered to answer. These weren't difficult questions either. They covered basic topics like the bailout plans, Roe v. Wade, and the Iraq War. In other words, things that anyone who has watched the news or read a newspaper in the last decade should be able to answer.

Their lack of response was disappointing to say the least. Anyone remotely involved in politics should be able to answer these questions. Reps. Salazar and Perlmutter can save face a little by pointing to their voting records instead of directly answering (for the record, Perlmutter supported the bailout). Andrew Romanoff offered only a hackneyed, political dodge by saying only he is "confident" in the governor's decision.

Hickenlooper, who has never held federal office and has no record on the issues he would face, had the most crass and tone-deaf response of all:

Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper said he would respond to the questions "if appointed to the Senate."

Hickenlooper has confirmed his interest in the appointment. Republicans might want to root for him if this is the sort of hubris he would execute his 2010 campaign with.

ED PERLMUTTER: The CD-7 Rep. has emerged as a favorite of the liberal blogosphere and is making more noise about the appointment than anyone else.

ANDREW ROMANOFF: The GJ Sentinel endorses Romanoff as Salazar's replacement.

JOHN HICKENLOOPER: The Denver Post casts their lot in with "Hick."

FEDERICO PEñA: The former Denver mayor pulls his name from consideration.

ED PERLMUTTER "LEANING" TOWARDS AUTO-MAKER BAILOUT: After his free pass in this year's election, he seems to have forgotten he represents a district that is still very competitive in voter registration breakdown. That will be an advantage for whoever runs against him in 2010.

RYAN CALL - THE NEXT DENVER GOP CHAIR?: PolitickerCO reports that Mary Smith will not seek another term as Denver GOP chair and that Ryan Call will be running to replace her. Ryan would do a fine job, though Smith will hopefully remain heavily involved in the party.

In a surprising turn of events, members of both parties banded together today to shut down the $700 billion financial bailout plan proposed by Nancy Pelosi and the Bush Administration. All those who came out opposed deserve kudos for bucking their party bosses and putting the interest of ordinary Americans first.

In Favor
DeGette
Perlmutter
Tancredo

Opposed
Lamborn
Musgrave
Salazar
Udall

It is disappointing to see that Tom Tancreo voted in favor of this boondoggle. This seriously undercuts his image as a fiscal conservative and as a maverick willing to place principle before party. Though it is hardly surprising that Tancredo is being disgraceful in his exit from office given his conduct over the last few years.