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Holy cow. Just when Ken Buck thought that everything was going his way (what with the dirty Washington, D.C. money pouring in to Colorado on his behalf and all), he got a little too comfortable and let this one slip at a recent event:
Yes. He did say that. He did say that the reason Colorado voters should support him is because he "...doesn't wear high heels."
Good luck defending that one, big boy.
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Q4 2009 Fundraising Totals (Incumbent in Bold)
Michael Bennet - 1,149,091
Tom Wiens - 725,000
Jane Norton - 550,605
Ken Buck - 39,850
John Salazar - 187,160
Scott Tipton - 109,981
Bob McConnell - 12,471
Betsy Markey - 227,442
Cory Gardner - 197,553
Diggs Brown - 61,174
Tom Lucero - 25,824
Ryan Frazier - 218,824
Ed Perlmutter - 215,201
Lang Sias - 30,931
U.S. Senate
Michael Bennet's fundraising continues at a monumental pace and it is starting to look as if he will have a massive advantage no matter who the Republican nominee may be. Jane Norton once again posted strong numbers, though many observers found it troublesome she did not improve much over the last quarter's take.
Though the Wiens campaign is declining to say how much of the $725,000 they are claiming to have brought in came from the candidate himself, it appears safe to assume that Wiens followed through on his previous statement that he would be investing $500,000 of his money into his campaign. Regardless of where the money came from, this means Wiens now has a very well-financed primary campaign.
Ken Buck had an extremely disappointing quarter. The sole consolation here is the massive ad buy by the Campaign for Liberty that can free up some money that may have been allocated by the Buck campaign for media and divert it into organizational costs.
CD-3
Scott Tipton had a strong showing for his first month in the race. If he is able to keep up the pace he should be able to place the seat into play.
CD-4
Cory Gardner had another strong fundraising quarter. Despite being outraised by Makey, CD-4's Republican voter registration advantage means that Makey would have to be raising even more than she is to make it up. Gardner is strongly positioning himself as the leading candidate in both the primary and general elections.
At $61,174, Diggs Brown has enough money to mount a primary challenge, even if it is a long-shot. He will at least be able to afford a working campaign organization, which is more than what most other underdog candidates in these Republican primaries can say.
Tom Lucero again had a lackluster quarter, but even more damaging to his prospects than his low fundraising haul is his astounding 200% burn rate. When a campaign spends twice what they raised in a given quarter, it is a sure sign it is on it's last legs.
CD-7
Ryan Frazier had a strong fundraising quarter and stands as the only Colorado Republican challenger for federal office to outraise the Democratic incumbent. While a narrow victory, Frazier's take places what was expected to be a safe Democratic seat into play.
Ex-Democrat and Mark Udall supporter Lang Sias, despite starting fundraising at the beginning of November and having most of the quarter to fundraise, came in with a dismal $30,931. Nearly half of his money came from Washington DC, as opposed to Frazier who blew him out of the water and raised funds mostly from in-state, and $5,000 of that came from John McCain's PAC. While Sias gave the illusion of being a strong candidate with his McCain backing and much-touted Washington connections, after raising only $30,391 it is hard to see how he is even remotely serious. Sias' funding problems will become even more severe as he is rumored to be planning to bypass the grassroots by running a costly petition campaign in the coming months.
National liberal blog Daily Kos occasionally commissions polls on various races. Their most recent was a national poll on voter enthusiasm. To put it mildly, they found a bit of a gap between Republicans and Democrats:
Voter Intensity: Definitely + Probably Voting/Not Likely + Not Voting
Republican Voters: 81/14
Independent Voters: 65/23
DEMOCRATIC VOTERS: 56/40
In other words, 81% of Republicans polled say they plan to vote in 2010 compared to only 56% of Democrats. This is a bleak result for Democrats who finally seem to be realizing that without Barack Obama on the ballot next year, not only will turnout be depreciated from lack of excitement but many demographics might not come to the polls altogether. Couple that with growing discontent among independent voters, and the worst-case scenario for Democratic incumbents could be emerging.
Just for fun let's take a look at the voter registration breakdown in CD-3, CD-4, CD-7, and statewide. Then let's take a look at the makeup of the electorate if we adjust to assume that 81% of Republicans turn out, 65% of unaffiliateds turn out, and 56% of Democrats turn out as the Daily Kos poll showed. (Raw voter registration percentages are provided along with the altered values in parenthesis.)
CD-3 (Adjusted)
Republican 34.7% (41.8%)
Unaffiliated 32.1% (31.0%)
Democratic 32.7% (27.2%)CD-4 (Adjusted)
Republican 37.2% (44.2%)
Unaffiliated 34.6% (33.0%)
Democratic 27.6% (22.7%)CD-7 (Adjusted)
Republican 28% (34.4%)
Unaffiliated 33.7% (33.5%)
Democratic 37.7% (32.1%)Statewide (Adjusted)
Republican 34.8% (41.8%)
Unaffiliated 30.8% (29.6%)
Democratic 34.4% (28.6%)
Democrats will probably rally to put on a bit better showing than the Daily Kos poll is predicting now, but in any case it is looking like there will be a distinct advantage for Republicans in turnout. This is basically a flip from the 2008 elections which saw a highly motivated Democratic electorate turn out for Barack Obama. John Salazar, Betsy Markey, and Ed Perlmutter are in for the rudest awakenings as a result: any Democratic candidate elected in 2008 will have their base suddenly M.I.A..
Both of Perlmutter's elections have been in years with highly motivated Democratic bases and these numbers show that CD-7 could transform into an effective Republican-plurality district when adjusted for turnout. Betsy Markey was an aberration, the floor will fall out from underneath her now that she lacks both an unpopular Republican opponent and sharing the ballot with Obama. John Salazar has had a decent amount of Republican crossover votes, but Republicans making up that large a portion of the electorate when adjusted and combined with anti-incumbent sentiments among independents could doom him.
* Voter registration numbers were taken from COMaps.org for CD-3, CD-4, and CD-7 and are dated August 2009. Statewide numbers were taken from the Secretary of State's statistics for active voter registrations as of October 2009.
It's official:
Aurora, CO - October 15, 2009 - In an address to his supporters today at a family-owned business in Adams County, Aurora City Councilman Ryan Frazier officially announced his candidacy for the Unites States House of Representatives in Colorado’s 7th Congressional District.
Frazier’s message is one of a new way forward with solutions grounded in the principles of fiscal responsibility and limited federal government. Frazier cites his desire to build a better, more prosperous future for the people of Colorado as his motivation for running for Congress. He sees the struggling economy, the need for a comprehensive policy that will lead to energy independence, and the fiscally irresponsible policies of the current Congress as the problems most affecting the people of Colorado."I stepped forward in this election because I feel so strongly about the opportunity we have as a country to be better, safer, and economically stronger. We owe our children that much. The dangerous course that the Democrat-controlled Congress has forced us to tread, greatly concerns me. There is too much at stake: people's livelihoods and our children's future. It’s time to re-energize the people's House with new leadership and better solutions. The 7th Congressional District represents the right path, right now to do my part in helping make America better. The people here deserve a better choice,” Frazier stated.
The clearest loser in this move is Ed Perlmutter. Perlmutter has had an easy time in both of his campaign thus far; winning in 2006 in one of the worst years for Republicans while Beauprez was busy tanking at the top of the ticket, and in 2008 against a Republican so low-profile that his campaign was using "John Who? Joh LeRew!" as a campaign slogan. Perlmutter hasn't had a difficult fight yet and Frazier can provide that.
The Senate primary now becomes a two-way race and Frazier's departure will benefit Ken Buck in one key area. Part of the problem that Buck and Frazier had raising money against Norton was that national conservative groups were not sure who to support between the two of them. Now that Buck is the clear alternative to Norton, organizations such as the Club for Growth are now much more likely to intervene and breathe life into Buck's campaign.
The results are in from the Keystone straw poll. Considering that Scott McInnis opted to skip the event and instead coordinate with a 501c4 committee to release a primary poll while opening himself up to claims of ethics violations, it should come as no surprise that Josh Penry posted strong numbers.
Josh Penry: 79%
Scott McInnis: 11%
The race for U.S. Senate saw DC-favored candidate Jane Norton pull out a razor-thin victory. Fully two-thirds of those present were opposed to a Norton candidacy. Despite monumental efforts by the Norton campaign to drive supporters to the event and the widespread assumption that the central committee members present would overwhelmingly favor her candidacy, she instead received a muted response and ended up essentially in a three-way gridlock with Frazier and Buck.
Jane Norton: 34%
Ryan Frazier: 27%
Ken Buck: 27%
Following up on the Washington Post's recent article predicting doom for Colorado Democrats, Rasmussen Reports follows up with polls on the Governor and Senate races showing bad news for Michael Bennet and Bill Ritter.
Scott McInnis: 44%
Bill Ritter: 39%Bill Ritter: 41%
Josh Penry: 40%
Ryan Frazier: 40%
Michael Bennet: 39%Michael Bennet: 43%
Ken Buck: 37%
Of course, the NRSC is poised to piss away any gains in the Senate race by forcing through a divisive candidate as their annointed candidate and fracturing the party in the process. But, hey, us dumb hicks out here in flyover country can't be trusted to pick our own representation.
On another note, this is RMR's 1000th post so pop out the champagne and have a toast to the conservative blogosphere. Or not.
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Renowned reporter/blogger Chris Cillizza spends time this morning writing about Senator Josh Penry and his campaign to be the next Governor of Colorado. In his "The Rising" series, Cillizza has spent time exploring the new faces of the GOP and what the party is doing to put forward candidates that don't fall in to the "same old same old" category. It's a great piece that's worth reading:
http://voices.washingtonpost.com/thefix/
This is just further evidence that Penry's campaign and his message of making a clean break from the GOP jokers that got our party in a ditch is gaining serious traction.
Ken Buck issued the following statement:
Ken Buck confirmed today that it's full steam ahead for his campaign for the U.S. Senate.
Buck said, "While other candidates may still jump in the Senate race, one thing is clear - our party's nominee will be chosen by Colorado's grassroots Republicans, not by political operatives in Washington D.C."
Buck said he has been deeply gratified by the strong response to his campaign from literally thousands of Coloradans over the past few months. "We have campaign leadership in every county in the state," he said.
Buck declared that his campaign has never been about him personally but rather about the critical importance of taking back the U.S. Senate seat from Michael Bennet.
Colorado deserves a strong independent Senator who will do the right thing for Colorado. Instead Buck claimed, "the appointed Senator Bennet has turned out to be just another rubber stamp for the big spending, big government liberals in Congress."
Ryan Frazier's campaign is also undaunted by the NRSC and will continue to push forward.
More details will emerge in the coming days surrounding the circumstances of the NRSC's meddling. Had Norton and individuals in DC involved succeeded in "clearing the field," Rep. Tom Tancredo was reportedly prepared to enter the race. The reasons for this will become clear as more details emerge.
UPDATE: The Denver Post reports this tidbit:
Buck said it was "Washington, D.C., insiders" who were behind the "shenanigans" to try to influence the race.
Buck said he made a brief phone call to Norton this morning to tell her he was still in the race. He said she said, " 'Thanks for calling' and that was the extent of our conversation."
UPDATE 2: Tom Wiens is also said to be unswayed by the Cornyn/Beauprez/Owens/McCain putsch.
In an e-mail to the state central committee today, Chairman Wadhams responds to the claims made in the Denver Post today by McInnis spokesman (and former Democrat activist) Sean Duffy. Here's the article:
http://www.denverpost.com/politics/ci_13236516
In his e-mail to the party faithful, Wadhams responds to the fallacious claims being made by the McInnis camp and reminds party leaders about Duffy's history working for Tim Gill funded causes like gay marriage domestic partnerships. Here's Wadhams' e-mail:
Monday, August 31, 2009
To: COLORADO REPUBLICAN STATE CENTRAL COMMITTEE
From: Dick Wadhams, State Chairman
COLORADO REPUBLICAN DINNER AND CANDIDATE FORUM
I am profoundly disappointed that one of the candidates for governor has indicated he will not attend our dinner and forum for candidates for Governor and U.S. Senator on Friday, September 25 at Keystone.
Former Congressman Scott McInnis released a letter this past Friday saying he would not attend the event, alleging that the straw poll will create “infighting.”
But even more disturbing is the suggestion by his campaign spokesman that we are somehow rigging the straw poll that will follow the forum that evening.
I am very perplexed how a candidate for governor has reached such a conclusion. Participating in a forum in front of Republican leaders from across the state and allowing those leaders to register their thoughts on who they thought did the best job in articulating why they should be our party’s nominee for major office is a tremendous opportunity for a candidate.
The letter from the McInnis campaign curiously alleges that the “straw poll provides discourse amongst ourselves.” Indeed it does!
“Discourse” is defined by Merriam-Webster as a “verbal exchange of ideas” and “formal and orderly and usually extended expression of thought on a subject.” And that is exactly what the forum is intended to do.
As Republicans, we believe competition makes us better and stronger. A rigorous, competitive nomination process produces better candidates. I managed the campaigns for Senator Wayne Allard in 1996 and Governor Bill Owens in 1998 when they had competitive primaries and went on to win in the general election.
This will be the first time Republican leaders will be gathered in one place since the candidates for Governor and U.S. Senator have been defined.
Immediately following the release of the McInnis letter, the Colorado Republican State Executive Committee, meeting in Pueblo this past Friday, voted 16 to 1 to move forward with the forum and straw poll. And we fully intend to do so.
Finally, the McInnis campaign spokesman said in today’s Denver Post he was “suspicious” of the straw poll. Consider the source of this allegation.
The McInnis campaign spokesman previously worked for liberal billionaire Tim Gill who has spent tens of millions of dollars attacking Republicans in Colorado. The spokesman just recently left his job at a Democratic political consulting firm that is running Governor Bill Ritter’s campaign.
Preliminary results are out for the extensive survey of over 600 Republican primary voters conducted by Ben DeGrow of Mount Virtus and Michael Sandoval of Slapstick Politics. The top-line results are below and detailed crosstabs and analysis will be released next week, so stay tuned.
July 2009 Colorado's Political Temperature Results
BUCK LEADS FIELD WITH $330,000 RAISED: They report 94% of individual contributions as coming from in-state, a stark contrast to Michael Bennet.
RYAN FRAZIER PREPARES TO FORMALLY DECLARE CANDIDACY: Ryan Frazier ended the quarter with $140,000 raised and has announced that he will soon be moving out of the exploratory phase into an official bid for the nomination.
Of course both campaigns lag behind Michael "the accidental Senator" Bennet, which is why you should get off your ass and donate to Fraizer or Buck.
This video from Ryan Frazier's campaign has been making the rounds, even getting some attention at Politico:
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It's about 14 months until the Republicans pick their candidate for U.S. Senate. That long wait hasn't deterred at least three candidates from throwing their hats into the ring. To date, Weld County District Attorney Ken Buck, Denver Businessman Clive Tidwell and Aurora Councilman Ryan Frazier have taken the formal steps to become candidates. Apparently waiting in the wings are Bob Beauprez, Dan Caplis, Troy Eid and Tom Tancredo. Whenever any or all of these heavyweights jump into the race, it will become quite interesting. But right now, Buck, Tidwell and Frazier are making the rounds, county by county..jpg)
On Friday, June 19th, Councilman Ryan Frazier visited the Douglas County Republicans at their monthly meeting in Castle Rock. Frazier has an interesting background that could serve him well if he becomes elected.
After five years of service in the U.S. Navy with the National Security Agency, Frazier was honorably discharged. He used his Navy skills while working at Raytheon before becoming a partner at Takara Systems. He ran and was elected to the Aurora City Council where he presently serves. He is married to his wife Kathy and they have three good-looking kids.
Frazier is tech savvy and it shows. If you google him you get a lot of hits and he is on facebook, twitter, flickr, youtube, etc. A lot of more experienced candidates are slow to embrace the new social networking tools. Not Frazier.
As Frazier addressed the Douglas GOPers, he had some interesting takes on a number of subjects. He zoomed in on the Dems defeat of the D.C. Scholarship Opportunity Act. Shutting down this program cuts offinner city kids from getting a decent education. He accused the Dems of being anti-choice when it comes to education. Frazier embraces home schooling, charter schools and other alternatives to the traditional public education system;not because one is necessarily better but because parents should have a choice. He is adamantly a free market supporter. He said, " We need to incentivize the producers to produce."
In keeping with his Naval background, Frazier advocates that law enforcement officers become eligible for security clearances so that local police agencies can work hand inhand with the federal agencies.
Concerning Iran and North Korea, Frazier shared his concerns that these countries may become unstable and then sell weapons of mass destruction to third parties. He thinks the Iran election is suspicious.
All in all, Councilman Frazier made a good impression on the Douglas GOP and he is a welcome addition in the U.S. Senate race.
Mike Robinson is Senior Partner at Robinson & Henry P.C., a Castle Rock law firm.
The Grand Juction Sentinel published a story on Friday centered almost entirely over the results of a Denver County GOP straw poll that was won by Josh Penry. Penry won the straw poll, held at a Denver County GOP breakfast, with 53% to 27% for Scott McInnis.
The Sentinel failed to mention, except in passing, the results of the much more heavily attended straw poll in El Paso County on May 30. McInnis took 64% in that poll to 35% for Penry. McInnis did not attend that poll though Penry was on hand.
The results of both of these polls are somewhat counterintuitive. The more conservative Penry would be expected to do better with Republican activists in El Paso County while the more moderate McInnis would be expected to outperform his rival in Denver. One possible explanation is that McInnis' posturing on the Piñon Canyon issue has gained him considerable traction in El Paso County.
There was considerably less variation in the Senate race between these straw polls. Ryan Frazier was victorious in both, taking 80% in the Denver County straw poll and edging out Ken Buck 43-39% in the El Paso County straw poll. Both Senate candidates were on hand campaigning at the El Paso straw poll. Only El Paso polled the treasurer race which was won by Walker Stapleton.
In any event, these polls consisted of activists who know these candidates well and will likely be convention delegates in 2010.
Michael Bennet's hefty fundraising in the first quarter of the year may have been intimidating at first glance, but a closer examination reveals that the bulk of the money came from out-of-state. Potential primary opponents to Bennet should especially take notice, as his fundraising among traditional Democratic in-state donors is weak and the rest of his in-state fundraising (primarily from the business community) may soon evaporate thanks to his waffling on EFCA.
New York, Washington D.C., and California provided Bennet nearly as many contributions as Colorado did. The graph below shows the source of Bennet's first quarter haul:
PAC contributions to Bennet topped a quarter of a million dollars, which along with the massive out-of-state funding leads one to wonder just who exactly want Michael Bennet to be Colorado's U.S. Senator.
Top sources of funding to Michael Bennet
Colorado - $509,810
PACs and other committees - $261,125
New York - $188,000
Washington DC - $136,958
California - $100,367
Maryland - $36,550
Massachusetts - $30,200
One thing is clear, Bennet's Republican opponent will have to have a strong backing from in-state donors. Those donors aren't going to just come out of no where, they are people like you reading this right now. The Democrats have figured out that in order to win elections they have to man up and give a few dollars, so please donate to Ryan Frazier or Ken Buck. Even if it is just $5 or $10 you can help send Michael Bennet a message that the people of Colorado do not want him in office.
MOUNT VIRTUS: "I sincerely hope that NRSC isn’t foolish enough to try to throw its weight around in Colorado’s developing U.S. Senate primary. But given this latest announcement, it’s hard not to be skeptical."
FACE THE STATE: "Face The State has obtained a invitation to a May fundraiser in support of Gov. Bill Ritter's 2010 re-election bid. Due to the event's timing, Ritter could be in violation of state campaign finance law."
SLAPSTICK POLITICS: "Whereas folks in the know have already taken notice of Aurora City Councilman Ryan Frazier's ascent in Colorado politics, he is just beginning to catch the attention of those in DC."
The Denver Business Journal reports on one of the first high profile endorsement in the Senate race:
Colorado’s business community has broken the seal on what is likely to be a 1-1/2-year flood of U.S. Senate endorsements, with a contractors’ group becoming the first in the state to back a candidate in the Republican primary.
Associated Builders and Contractors’ Western Colorado chapter announced that it is endorsing Aurora City Councilman Ryan Frazier in the Senate race. The group said in a news release that Frazier, who also was a primary backer of last year’s failed right-to-work constitutional amendment, “is a candidate that brings solutions to issues, not only a ‘no’ vote.”
FRAZIER WINS BUSINESS BACKING: The Associated Builders & Contractors of Western Colorado endorse Ryan Frazier in the U.S. Senate race.
HUBRIS: Ken Buck tells Face The State that he thinks "there may not even be a primary."
BUCK, FRAZIER COURT COLLEGE REPUBLICANS: Both Senate candidates were on hand to court college Republicans at the CR convention in Ft. Collins. Other candidates present included Josh Penry, Cory Gardner, Tom Lucero, and Dan Maes. Those on hand say that Gardner and Frazier stole the show and that Buck and Penry were also very well received. No students present appeared to be supportive of any senate candidates aside from Buck and Frazier.
Public Policy Polling, a Democratic polling outfit, has released some of the first numbers on the 2010 Senate race in Colorado and the picture isn't great for Sen. Michael Bennet. Full crosstabs are available on their site, but here are some of the highlights:
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