( - promoted by Rocky Mountain Right - )

I keep thinking back to 2005 and 2006 during the governor’s race. In 2005 Republicans and Democrats agreed, Ritter was a tier 2 candidate and Beauprez would likely sail to victory. In 2006, I think it’s fair to say, Beauprez lost the race and that other guy won. Ritter didn’t run a remarkable race by any means. He barely stuck his neck out too far, didn’t make any waves and avoided taking positions on issues.

Think of a Beauprez governorship and you know what you get: fiscal responsibility, leadership and trust. Now, try to imagine a Wildcard Bill Ritter governorship…

As was first reported by Ben DeGrow, Bob Beauprez has decided against a run for United States Senate.

Beauprez appears to be making room for former Lt. Gov. Jane Norton's possible entry into the race. Norton is expected to have the backing of former Gov. Bill Owens and Beauprez as her main credentials upon entering the race. The presence of Owens and Beauprez lurking behind her candidacy should make for an interesting dynamic as both have made clear their disdain for primaries and desire for candidates to be selected by the GOP "old guard." Unfortunately for them, their political sway has been greatly diminished from years out of power and Norton's endorsement of Referendum C in 2005 is causing more resistance among activists than they seem to have expected.

As Ross Kaminsky puts it:

It will be interesting to see if any of the candidates choose not to involve themselves in a potentially destructive multi-way primary, especially with Mrs. Norton probably being an instant, if slight, front-runner.  That said, Mrs. Norton supported Bill Owens’ push for Referendum C which many conservative Republicans (i.e. likely primary voters) felt to be a sell-out of fundamental conservative principles.

Further complicating matters for Norton among conservative activists, she served as a McCain campaign chair during the presidential primary which many will take as an indication of what type of Senator she would like to be.

Politico reports that the rumors are sadly true. The man who lost the Governor's mansion in a 17-point landslide and threw away CD-7 is concerned that he is the only Republican "who can win."

Beauprez represented a competitive suburban Denver district from 2003-2007. But he suffered a crushing 17-point loss to Democratic Gov. Bill Ritter in 2006, a significant setback to his political career.

But Colorado Republicans have been underwhelmed by the two current candidates in the race – Aurora city councilman Ryan Frazier and Weld County district attorney Ken Buck. Frazier, who has generated buzz as an African-American Republican star in the making, only raised $143,000 in the quarter -- well below expectations. And Buck didn't do too much better, only bringing in $332,000.

Beauprez said he’s skeptical that those two are capable of garnering the resources to put the Senate seat in play.

“I consider them good friends, but at the end of the day someone needs to be in this race that can win,” Beauprez said.

Preliminary results are out for the extensive survey of over 600 Republican primary voters conducted by Ben DeGrow of Mount Virtus and Michael Sandoval of Slapstick Politics. The top-line results are below and detailed crosstabs and analysis will be released next week, so stay tuned.

July 2009 Colorado's Political Temperature Results

Public Policy Polling, a Democratic polling outfit, has released some of the first numbers on the 2010 Senate race in Colorado and the picture isn't great for Sen. Michael Bennet. Full crosstabs are available on their site, but here are some of the highlights:

• Michael Bennet has a negative net approval, with 41% disapproving of his job performance and only 34% approving.
• Republican candidate Bob Beauprez has the highest name ID of the Republicans polled and defeats Bennet in this poll by one-point (43 to 42).
• Declared candidate Ryan Frazier fares the second best, with Michael Bennet pulling 39% to Frazier's 35% for a 4-point victory.
• Likely candidate Ken Buck is also in a close race with Bennet; Buck pulls 34% to 40% for Bennet giving the Democratic Senator a 6-point margin of victory.
• They also polled Josh Penry for some reason. Penry gets 34% to Bennet's 41%.

(- promoted by Rocky Mountain Right: some impressions from the Steele dinner last night from an attendee, also see this Politics West article on the prospective candidates at the event.)

Michael Steele apparently won the hearts of the Colorado GOP last night, and he saw and heard that the Colorado GOP has a stronger bench than most people outside the state think.

Bob Beauprez and Dan Caplis made especially strong impressions in the Senate race. 

Josh Penry did ok but needs to work up a better presentation and needs practice.

Mark Hillman struck me as a strong prospect, but he's not running. 

J.J. Ament looks good for state treasurer, and Scott Gessler was impressive.

I was disappointed with Tom Tancredo. Scott McInnis didn't speak and Marc Holtzman was a no show as far as I could tell. 

DECONSTRUCTING BOB BEAUPREZ: Bob Beauprez appears to be fairly serious about running for U.S. Senate. In his recent interview in the Colorado Statesman, he was asked about potential competition in a Senate primary and conspicuously left out one name:

"On the Senate side, I don’t know, now that John Suthers has backed off. The only other name I’m hearing seriously is maybe (Dan) Caplis. And I don’t know if that it is serious."

In fact, Beauprez managed to avoid mentioning Ryan Frazier in the entire interview. It might be nothing, but it sounds like Beauprez is going out of his way to avoiding mentioning his real competition.

The RMR Senate straw poll closed down automatically at noon yesterday, and if the results are indicative at all of the party as a whole then we could see a very fiercely contested primary. Ryan Frazier is the winner of the poll, enjoying a razor-thin victory of only 3 votes out of 155 over Mark Hillman. Bob Beauprez managed to pull 19% of the votes to come in third place, which indicates he still has some base of support out there but would face an uphill battle in a primary. Bentley Rayburn, who is said in some circles to be looking at the Senate race just as he did in 2008, barely registers.

Ryan Frazier 40% (62 votes)
Mark Hillman 38% (59 votes)
Bob Beauprez 19% (29 votes)
Bentley Rayburn 3% (5 votes)

Stay tuned for a gubernatorial straw poll later today.

Poll closes in one week.

RENDLEMAN FOR E.P.C. GOP CHAIR LAUNCHES SITE: Races for county Republican party leadership don't usually escalate to the point of having campaign sites launched, but the Kay Rendleman- Lois Landgraf- Buddy Gilmore ticket in Colorado Springs has done exactly that. They are being opposed by a ticket consisting of Cami Bremer and Darryl Glenn pushing for a greater focus on youth outreach and technology. The Rendleman - Langraf- Gilmore ticket seems to be running on "experience."

El Paso County will select their new leadership on Feb. 7th.

POLL SHOWS RITTER VULNERABLE IN 2010: Ben DeGrow points to a poll by a democratic polling outfit on potential 2010 matchups between Bill Ritter and Tom Tancredo or Bob Beauprez. Tom Tancredo unsurprisingly would be crushed in a historic landslide. More interesting is the fact that going up against the guy he beat by 17-points a couple years ago and who still holds a 45% disapproval rating in this poll, Ritter only wins by 6-points and falls short of breaking 50% (Ritter is at 46%).

Poll numbers of match-ups between Ritter and a Republican not named "Tom Tancredo" or "Bob Beauprez" will likely show a dead heat or a very close race.